Iowa - Midterms - GOTV Poll: methodology as of Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM PT
Paid for and Authorized by Results PAC

Completed respondents statewide: 994.
By district: IA-01 245, IA-02 215, IA-03 354, IA-04 180.
Margin of error, full sample: plus or minus 3.1 points (95% confidence, unweighted).
Weighting: Weighted to the recalled 2024 presidential vote targets shown on this page (Trump, Harris, other). Region targets are not applied yet because respondents are placed by county only. Unweighted results and respondent counts are shown alongside.
Crosstab groups with fewer than 30 respondents are not shown.

Latest published methodology statement (release as of November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT):

Release as of November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT. Paid for and Authorized by Results PAC. Results continue to come in and will be published live on GOTVPolling.com and ResultsPAC.com. Updated results, crosstabs, methodology and expanded universe may be published from time to time. Each update is dated. Sponsor and conduct The poll is sponsored by Results PAC and conducted by GOTV Polling. Paid for and Authorized by Results PAC. Mode Text-to-web. Respondents were invited by text message and answered the questionnaire on a web page. All responses in this release were completed in English. Population and sample The population is registered voters in Iowa, drawn from the state voter file. Each respondent is matched to the voter file, which supplies party registration, age, sex, an ethnicity estimate, past vote history, county and congressional district. Respondents do not give their names, and no names or addresses are published. This release includes 994 completed respondents statewide: IA-01 245, IA-02 215, IA-03 354, IA-04 180. A respondent counts as completed when the questionnaire is finished; partial responses are not included. Field dates Fieldwork began on October 30, 2026. This release reports completed interviews through November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT. Collection is continuing, so no end date applies yet. Weighting Statewide results are weighted to targets for the 2024 Iowa presidential result, using each respondent's recalled 2024 vote: Donald Trump 55.5%, Kamala Harris 42.8%, someone else 1.8%. Respondents who said they did not vote in 2024, or did not answer the question, keep a weight of 1. Individual weights are capped between 0.2 and 5. No other variable is weighted. Age, sex, party registration, ethnicity, region and vote history are not weighted. Unweighted results are shown alongside the weighted results for every question, and every crosstab shows the unweighted number of respondents. House district results for IA-01 and IA-03 are weighted to recalled 2024 presidential vote in the district. IA-02 and IA-04 are unweighted because no district weighting targets are applied yet; treat those results with extra caution. Things to know about this sample. The sample skews old: 76% of respondents are 65 or older, 0% are 45 to 64, 0% are 30 to 44, and only 0 respondents are 18 to 29. Because age is not weighted, younger voters are underrepresented in these results. Before weighting, respondents recall voting for Kamala Harris in 2024 at a much higher rate than Iowa did, and 57% are registered Democrats. Weighting to the 2024 result therefore changes the results materially. In the U.S. Senate race the weighted result is Ashley Hinson 53.5%, Josh Turek 44.5%, Undecided 2.0%; unweighted it is Ashley Hinson 37.2%, Josh Turek 60.9%, Undecided 1.9%. The weighted figures are the headline results. Unweighted figures are never final results on their own and are labeled wherever they appear. Margin of error For the full statewide sample of 994, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence, computed as for a simple random sample. Weighting adds a design effect of 1.15, which raises the margin of error to plus or minus 3.3 points. The margin of error is larger for subgroups and districts. It covers sampling error only; it does not cover nonresponse, coverage, question wording or the age skew described above. IA-01: n = 245. Weighted to recalled 2024 presidential vote in the district (Trump 53.5%, Harris 44.6%, other 1.8%). Margin of error plus or minus 6.3 points, or 6.5 including the design effect. IA-02: n = 215. Unweighted: no district weighting targets are applied yet. Margin of error plus or minus 6.7 points. IA-03: n = 354. Weighted to recalled 2024 presidential vote in the district (Trump 51.0%, Harris 47.3%, other 1.7%). Margin of error plus or minus 5.2 points, or 6.1 including the design effect. IA-04: n = 180. Unweighted: no district weighting targets are applied yet. Margin of error plus or minus 7.3 points. Crosstabs and reporting rules Crosstabs are shown by party registration, age, sex, ethnicity (voter file estimate), vote history band and congressional district. Any group with fewer than 30 respondents is suppressed and shown as "not enough responses". Poll results are published as statewide and congressional district totals only. GOTV Polling does not publish county-level or precinct-level poll results. County and precinct maps on the site show certified past election results, early vote and Census demographics, not poll results. Vote history band is the respondent's past-election vote history score from the voter file (8 is the most frequent voters). Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding. No individual responses or personal information are published. Questions asked Questions asked, by topic: U.S. Senate, Governor, U.S. House, whether the respondent has already voted, 2024 presidential vote and opinion of Donald Trump. Answer options are listed as recorded in the response data. U.S. Senate vote. Options: Ashley Hinson; Josh Turek; Undecided. Governor vote. Options: Zach Lahn; Rob Sand; Undecided. U.S. House vote in the respondent's district. Options: the candidates on the ballot in that district, and Undecided. Whether the respondent has already voted. Options: Already voted; Plan to vote; Not sure. 2024 presidential vote (recalled). Options: Donald Trump; Kamala Harris; Someone else; Did not vote. Opinion of Donald Trump. Options: Very favorable; Somewhat favorable; Somewhat unfavorable; Very unfavorable; No opinion. Some respondents were also asked about their Iowa Senate and Iowa House races. Those results are not reported in this release because too few respondents answered in any single legislative district. Updates This release is a snapshot as of November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT. Results continue to come in and are published live on GOTVPolling.com and ResultsPAC.com. Updated results, crosstabs, methodology and an expanded universe may be published from time to time, and each update is dated. Contact join@gotv.com Paid for and Authorized by Results PAC.