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District map: past elections, early vote and census data
Choose a layer, then select a precinct to see past results and census data for that precinct. GOTV poll results are published as statewide and district totals only.
Choose a layer above. Hover a precinct for its values.
Past results: certified precinct results from the state election office (Iowa Secretary of State, Election Night Reporting), on current precinct shapes. Census: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, ACS 2020-2024 5-year.
Top Line Poll Results LiveIA-01 U.S. House: Mariannette Miller-Meeks 51.9%, Christina Bohannan 45.3% (Miller-Meeks +6.6), n = 245245 respondents · MOE ±6.3 pts · weightedExpand to see more
U.S. House (IA-01) #IA01
n = 245, weighted. Undecided 2.7%
Methodology LiveIA-01: 245 respondents · MOE ±6.3 ptsFielding since October 30, 2026 · data as of Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM PTExpand to see more
- One poll covers all six races; this methodology is the same on every race page. Respondents and margin of error by race: IA-SEN (#IASEN): 994 respondents, MOE ±3.1 pts; IA-GOV (#IAGOV): 993 respondents, MOE ±3.1 pts; IA-01 (#IA01): 245 respondents, MOE ±6.3 pts; IA-02 (#IA02): 215 respondents, MOE ±6.7 pts; IA-03 (#IA03): 350 respondents, MOE ±5.2 pts; IA-04 (#IA04): 180 respondents, MOE ±7.3 pts.
- Margin of error: plus or minus 3.1 points for the full sample (95% confidence); 3.3 with the design effect from weighting.
- Mode: Text-to-web. Registered Iowa voters, matched to the voter file. Collection has closed.
- Weighting: Weighted to the recalled 2024 presidential vote targets shown on this page (Trump, Harris, other). Region targets are not applied yet because respondents are placed by county only. Unweighted results and respondent counts are shown alongside.
- Official release as of November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT.
- Responses are still coming in. Results are published live on the GOTVPolling.com and ResultsPAC.com poll pages, and updated results, crosstabs, methodology and an expanded universe may be published from time to time.
Crosstabs LiveParty registration: Democratic Bohannan 96%; Republican Miller-Meeks 85%Age: 65+ Bohannan 59%; 50-64 Bohannan 61%Expand to see more
U.S. House (IA-01) vote, unweighted, IA-01 respondents. Groups under 30 respondents are not shown.
| Party registration | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 133 | 96.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Republican | 110 | 11.8% | 84.5% | 3.6% |
| Non-Partisan | n too small | |||
| Age | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65+ | 182 | 58.8% | 39.6% | 1.6% |
| 50-64 | 41 | 61.0% | 34.1% | 4.9% |
| 35-49 | n too small | |||
| 18-34 | n too small | |||
| Sex | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | 130 | 48.5% | 49.2% | 2.3% |
| Women | 115 | 69.6% | 27.8% | 2.6% |
Graphics downloads for IA-01 #IA01
- IA-01 U.S. House: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- House margin by district (map): PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Governor by district: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Senate by district: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
Poll results
Respondents (completed): 245. Last updated: Nov 3, 2:32 AM PT. Reload the page for the latest numbers while responses come in.
Toplines are weighted; unweighted shares and respondent counts are shown with each question. Margin of error for the full sample: plus or minus 6.3 points (unweighted, 95% confidence). Crosstab groups with fewer than 30 respondents are not shown.
U.S. House vote
Weighted shares among completed respondents who answered. n = 245.
Unweighted: Christina Bohannan 58.4%, Mariannette Miller-Meeks 39.2%, Undecided 2.4%.
Crosstabs (unweighted)
| Party registration | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 133 | 96.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Republican | 110 | 11.8% | 84.5% | 3.6% |
| Non-Partisan | n too small | |||
| Age | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65+ | 182 | 58.8% | 39.6% | 1.6% |
| 50-64 | 41 | 61.0% | 34.1% | 4.9% |
| 35-49 | n too small | |||
| 18-34 | n too small | |||
| Sex | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | 130 | 48.5% | 49.2% | 2.3% |
| Women | 115 | 69.6% | 27.8% | 2.6% |
| Ethnicity | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European | 218 | 57.3% | 39.9% | 2.8% |
| Not on file | n too small | |||
| East and South Asian | n too small | |||
| Likely African-American | n too small | |||
| Hispanic and Portuguese | n too small | |||
Weighting: Weighted to the recalled 2024 presidential vote targets shown on this page (Trump, Harris, other). Region targets are not applied yet because respondents are placed by county only. Unweighted results and respondent counts are shown alongside.
Candidates on the ballot
- Christina Bohannan (D)
- Michael Bridgford (I)
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Past results in this area
Areas
| Area | Weighting cell | Weighting share | 2024 President R two-party | 2024 U.S. House R two-party | 2022 Governor R two-party | 2020 President R two-party | Spanish at home (adults) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson County: most Democratic third of precincts | C1 | 6.8% | 19.0% | 18.5% | 18.6% | 18.6% | 4.0% |
| Johnson County: middle third of precincts | C1 | 6.9% | 28.8% | 26.7% | 25.3% | 24.4% | 4.0% |
| Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | C1 | 6.6% | 44.4% | 42.6% | 46.0% | 44.3% | 4.0% |
| Scott County: most Democratic third of precincts | C2 | 6.5% | 42.9% | 39.7% | 44.8% | 37.8% | 2.8% |
| Scott County: middle third of precincts | C2 | 6.7% | 50.2% | 47.3% | 54.3% | 47.7% | 2.8% |
| Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | C2 | 6.3% | 61.4% | 58.1% | 65.3% | 56.4% | 2.8% |
| Warren County | C1 | 7.4% | 60.5% | 55.6% | 63.2% | 65.7% | 1.6% |
| Muscatine County | C2 | 6.5% | 56.7% | 51.7% | 64.2% | 54.5% | 11.4% |
| Jasper County | C1 | 5.4% | 63.4% | 57.5% | 63.9% | 50.1% | 2.4% |
| Clinton County | C2 | 5.3% | 59.6% | 53.6% | 60.9% | 64.3% | 1.3% |
| Marion County | C1 | 4.4% | 69.2% | 65.0% | 72.9% | 67.2% | 1.4% |
| Des_Moines County | C2 | 4.1% | 52.2% | 46.0% | 54.6% | 48.6% | 1.5% |
| Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | C2 | 9.0% | 61.2% | 56.4% | 63.4% | 61.1% | 2.3% |
| Other counties: middle third | C1 | 9.2% | 65.6% | 59.7% | 68.8% | 61.9% | 1.8% |
| Other counties: most Republican third | C1 | 9.0% | 76.1% | 69.9% | 74.2% | 73.0% | 3.2% |
Areas are counties; large counties are split into thirds of precincts by 2024 presidential lean, and small counties are pooled. Past results are certified results. Spanish at home is the county figure (within this district for House races) from the ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates, so the three thirds of one county show the same value.
Weighting cells
- C1: Johnson County: most Democratic third of precincts; Johnson County: middle third of precincts; Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts; Warren County; Jasper County; Marion County; Other counties: middle third; Other counties: most Republican third
- C2: Scott County: most Democratic third of precincts; Scott County: middle third of precincts; Scott County: most Republican third of precincts; Muscatine County; Clinton County; Des_Moines County; Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined)
Weighting targets
| Variable | Category | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Region | Johnson County: most Democratic third of precincts | 6.8% |
| Region | Johnson County: middle third of precincts | 6.9% |
| Region | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | 6.6% |
| Region | Scott County: most Democratic third of precincts | 6.5% |
| Region | Scott County: middle third of precincts | 6.7% |
| Region | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | 6.3% |
| Region | Warren County | 7.4% |
| Region | Muscatine County | 6.5% |
| Region | Jasper County | 5.4% |
| Region | Clinton County | 5.3% |
| Region | Marion County | 4.4% |
| Region | Des_Moines County | 4.1% |
| Region | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | 9.0% |
| Region | Other counties: middle third | 9.2% |
| Region | Other counties: most Republican third | 9.0% |
| Recalled 2024 vote | Trump | 53.5% |
| Recalled 2024 vote | Harris | 44.6% |
| Recalled 2024 vote | Other | 1.8% |
| Age x gender (adults) | M_18_29 | 11.0% |
| Age x gender (adults) | M_30_44 | 12.3% |
| Age x gender (adults) | M_45_64 | 15.6% |
| Age x gender (adults) | M_65p | 10.8% |
| Age x gender (adults) | F_18_29 | 10.5% |
| Age x gender (adults) | F_30_44 | 11.8% |
| Age x gender (adults) | F_45_64 | 15.3% |
| Age x gender (adults) | F_65p | 12.6% |
ZIP code key
Show 253 ZIP codes and their areas
| ZIP | Area | Also in |
|---|---|---|
| 50001 | Warren County | |
| 50027 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 50028 | Jasper County | |
| 50044 | Marion County | S15 46% |
| 50047 | Warren County | |
| 50049 | Marion County | |
| 50054 | Jasper County | |
| 50055 | Jasper County | |
| 50057 | Marion County | |
| 50061 | Warren County | |
| 50062 | Marion County | |
| 50104 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 50112 | Jasper County | |
| 50116 | Marion County | |
| 50118 | Warren County | |
| 50119 | Marion County | |
| 50125 | Warren County | |
| 50127 | Jasper County | |
| 50135 | Jasper County | |
| 50136 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 50137 | Jasper County | |
| 50138 | Marion County | |
| 50139 | Warren County | S11 46% |
| 50141 | Jasper County | |
| 50143 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 50145 | Warren County | |
| 50150 | Marion County | |
| 50151 | Warren County | |
| 50153 | Jasper County | S15 6% |
| 50160 | Warren County | |
| 50161 | Jasper County | |
| 50162 | Jasper County | |
| 50163 | Marion County | |
| 50166 | Warren County | |
| 50168 | Jasper County | |
| 50170 | Jasper County | S11 17% |
| 50171 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 50207 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 50208 | Jasper County | |
| 50210 | Warren County | |
| 50211 | Warren County | |
| 50214 | Marion County | |
| 50219 | Marion County | S15 8% |
| 50225 | Marion County | S07 8% |
| 50228 | Jasper County | S11 6% |
| 50229 | Warren County | |
| 50232 | Jasper County | |
| 50234 | Jasper County | |
| 50237 | Jasper County | S11 24% |
| 50240 | Warren County | |
| 50241 | Warren County | |
| 50251 | Jasper County | |
| 50252 | Marion County | S07 34% |
| 50255 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 50256 | Marion County | S15 26% |
| 50257 | Warren County | |
| 50265 | Warren County | |
| 50268 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 50320 | Warren County | |
| 52030 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52031 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52032 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52033 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52037 | Clinton County | |
| 52054 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52060 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52064 | Other counties: middle third | S10 13% |
| 52069 | Other counties: middle third | S10 18% |
| 52070 | Other counties: middle third | S10 12% |
| 52071 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52074 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52075 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52079 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52201 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52203 | Other counties: middle third | S03 34% |
| 52205 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52207 | Other counties: middle third | S10 11% |
| 52208 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52209 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52212 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52216 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S14 10% |
| 52220 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52221 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52222 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52227 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52228 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52231 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52235 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52236 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52237 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52240 | Johnson County: most Democratic third of precincts | S02 39%; S03 17% |
| 52241 | Johnson County: middle third of precincts | S01 28% |
| 52242 | Johnson County: middle third of precincts | S03 34%; S01 9% |
| 52245 | Johnson County: most Democratic third of precincts | S02 23% |
| 52246 | Johnson County: most Democratic third of precincts | S02 30%; S03 6% |
| 52247 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S03 21% |
| 52248 | Other counties: most Republican third | S13 44% |
| 52251 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52252 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52253 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S14 14%; S03 7% |
| 52254 | Clinton County | |
| 52255 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52301 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52305 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52306 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S14 13% |
| 52307 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52309 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52310 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52316 | Other counties: middle third | S15 9% |
| 52317 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | S02 43% |
| 52318 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52320 | Other counties: middle third | S13 9% |
| 52321 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52322 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52323 | Other counties: middle third | S13 12%; S10 12% |
| 52325 | Other counties: middle third | S03 17% |
| 52327 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S03 18% |
| 52333 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52334 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52335 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52337 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52338 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52340 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52347 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52353 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52355 | Other counties: most Republican third | S14 5% |
| 52356 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S14 12%; S03 8% |
| 52358 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S03 9% |
| 52359 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52361 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52362 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52404 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52501 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52533 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52534 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52535 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52540 | Other counties: most Republican third | S13 48% |
| 52542 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52543 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52550 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52551 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52553 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52554 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52556 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52561 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52562 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52563 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52565 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52567 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52568 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52570 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52573 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52576 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52577 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52580 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52585 | Other counties: most Republican third | S13 7% |
| 52586 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52588 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52591 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52595 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52601 | Des_Moines County | |
| 52620 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52621 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S15 13% |
| 52623 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52625 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52626 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52627 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52630 | Other counties: most Republican third | S14 50% |
| 52632 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52635 | Other counties: most Republican third | S14 6% |
| 52638 | Des_Moines County | |
| 52640 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52641 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52644 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52645 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52646 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52647 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52649 | Other counties: middle third | S13 18% |
| 52651 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52652 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 52653 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52654 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S14 33% |
| 52655 | Des_Moines County | |
| 52656 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52657 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52658 | Des_Moines County | |
| 52659 | Other counties: middle third | S15 37% |
| 52701 | Clinton County | |
| 52720 | Muscatine County | S13 30% |
| 52721 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52722 | Scott County: middle third of precincts | S06 29%; S04 10% |
| 52726 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52727 | Clinton County | |
| 52728 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52729 | Clinton County | |
| 52730 | Clinton County | |
| 52731 | Clinton County | |
| 52732 | Clinton County | |
| 52737 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52738 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52739 | Other counties: most Republican third | S08 47% |
| 52742 | Clinton County | |
| 52745 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52746 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52747 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | S06 31% |
| 52748 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52749 | Muscatine County | |
| 52750 | Clinton County | |
| 52751 | Clinton County | |
| 52752 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52753 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52754 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 52755 | Johnson County: most Republican third of precincts | S15 6% |
| 52756 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52757 | Clinton County | |
| 52758 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52760 | Muscatine County | S13 33% |
| 52761 | Muscatine County | |
| 52765 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | S13 28% |
| 52766 | Muscatine County | S03 7% |
| 52767 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52768 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52769 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52771 | Clinton County | |
| 52772 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 52773 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 52774 | Clinton County | |
| 52776 | Muscatine County | S13 11% |
| 52777 | Clinton County | S13 10% |
| 52778 | Muscatine County | S13 34% |
| 52801 | Scott County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 52802 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | S04 47% |
| 52803 | Scott County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 52804 | Scott County: most Democratic third of precincts | S05 31%; S06 23% |
| 52806 | Scott County: middle third of precincts | S04 46%; S06 8% |
| 52807 | Scott County: middle third of precincts | S04 31%; S06 26% |
| 61041 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 61074 | Other counties: middle third | |
| 61201 | Scott County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 61242 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | S10 34% |
| 61244 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 61252 | Clinton County | |
| 61256 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 61259 | Muscatine County | |
| 61264 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 61272 | Other counties: most Republican third | |
| 61275 | Scott County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 61285 | Clinton County | |
| 61425 | Des_Moines County | |
| 61437 | Des_Moines County | |
| 62341 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 62379 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) | |
| 63430 | Lee, Cedar, Washington (combined) |
Respondents give a ZIP code, which places each response in an area. No names or addresses are collected.
Voting history of respondents: U.S. House IA-01 (#IA01)
Aggregate results only. Groups under 30 respondents are held back. All respondents are high-turnout voters who voted in each of the last four general elections.
Sample: 226 completed respondents answered the U.S. House IA-01 question (published topline n). Margin of error plus or minus 6.7 points at 95% confidence (including the weighting design effect). Weighted to recalled 2024 presidential vote, the same method as the published toplines. Voting history comes from the voter file record matched to each respondent (226 of 226 matched). All numbers are polling aggregates. Any group with fewer than 30 respondents is held back. Subgroup margins of error are larger than the topline.
Published topline: Mariannette Miller-Meeks 51.8%, Christina Bohannan 45.3%, Undecided 2.9%.
Who answered: voting history profile
- Every respondent voted in the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 general elections (all of the last four). These are high-turnout voters, not all registered voters, so these results describe the most reliable part of the electorate.
- New vs habitual: voters who did not vote in the 2016 general (newer voters) number under 30 and are held back; everyone else is a long-run habitual voter. A new-voter comparison is not possible from this sample.
Primary participation, 2018 to 2026 (of 5):
| Group | Respondents | Share |
|---|---|---|
| All 5 primaries | 134 | 59% |
| 4 of 5 primaries | 56 | 25% |
| 2 or 3 of 5 primaries | 36 | 16% |
2024 general, how they voted:
| Group | Respondents | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Early, 2+ weeks out | 82 | 36% |
| Early, final 2 weeks | 95 | 42% |
| Election Day (no early record) | 49 | 22% |
Voter-file vote frequency score:
| Group | Respondents | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Vote frequency 8 (highest) | 134 | 59% |
| Vote frequency 7 | 56 | 25% |
| Vote frequency 5 to 6 | 36 | 16% |
Support by voting history
Primary history:
| Group | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 5 primaries | 134 | 51.5% | 45.1% | 3.4% |
| 4 of 5 primaries | 56 | 43.3% | 56.7% | 0.0% |
| 2 or 3 of 5 primaries | 36 | 27.8% | 66.7% | 5.5% |
2024 voting method:
| Group | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early, 2+ weeks out | 82 | 61.9% | 36.3% | 1.8% |
| Early, final 2 weeks | 95 | 41.7% | 54.5% | 3.8% |
| Election Day (no early record) | 49 | 28.5% | 68.5% | 3.0% |
Vote frequency score:
| Group | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote frequency 8 (highest) | 134 | 51.5% | 45.1% | 3.4% |
| Vote frequency 7 | 56 | 43.3% | 56.7% | 0.0% |
| Vote frequency 5 to 6 | 36 | 27.8% | 66.7% | 5.5% |
Party registration by primary history:
| Group | n | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican, all 5 primaries | 49 | 7.6% | 89.0% | 3.4% |
| Republican, fewer than 5 primaries | 51 | 5.8% | 90.9% | 3.4% |
| Democratic, all 5 primaries | 83 | 90.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Democratic, fewer than 5 primaries | 41 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Other / no party, all 5 primaries | under 30 | held back | held back | held back |
What it means
- Margin among voters in all 5 primaries: Bohannan +6.4; among those in 2 or 3 of 5: Miller-Meeks +38.9.
- Margin among voters who voted early 2+ weeks out in 2024: Bohannan +25.6; among Election Day voters: Miller-Meeks +40.0.
- Within each party support barely moves (Republicans 89% and 91% Miller-Meeks, Democrats 91% and 100% Bohannan), so the gap is mostly party mix.
- Because every respondent is a high-turnout voter, read differences between voting-history groups as differences within the most reliable part of the electorate, not as a turnout model.
- Party and primary history overlap strongly; differences by history group are largely party composition.
Caveats
- Held back (under 30): Other / no party, all 5 primaries.
- Early-vote timing is from the voter file's 2024 record, not a 2026 early-vote measure.
Race profile: Iowa's 1st Congressional District
U.S. House · Iowa · District 1 · General election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Candidates on the November 3 ballot
Mariannette Miller-MeeksRepublicanIncumbentPhoto: U.S. Congress
Christina BohannanDemocraticPhoto: bohannanforcongress.com
Michael BridgfordIndependentPhoto: qtrypzzcjebvfcihiynt.supabase.co
Source: Certified November 3, 2026 general-election ballot list (GOTV Polling 2026 Battlegrounds file, compiled from state certified candidate lists). Write-in candidates are not shown.. Order of names does not reflect ballot order. Incumbent tags appear only where the official list marks incumbents. Photos come from the Candidate Alerts database where one is on file; otherwise initials are shown.
Federal campaign finance filings for this seat: FEC election page (FEC registration is not the same as ballot qualification).
Certified candidates
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks RepublicanIncumbent @RepMMM
- Christina Bohannan Democratic @BohannanIowa Website
- Michael Bridgford Independent @Bridgford4Iowa Website
Certified candidate list from Candidate Alerts, as of 2026-09-24, based on Iowa Secretary of State. Includes candidates the database marks as on the November 3 ballot. Incumbent tags here follow the database.
Past election results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Republican | 206,955 | 50.0% |
| Christina Bohannan | Democratic | 206,156 | 49.8% |
| Write-in | 967 | 0.2% | |
| Total | 414,078 |
Source: Iowa Secretary of State, Election Night Reporting / Precinct Results by County (electionresults.iowa.gov). Status: Certified, Iowa county canvass results as published by the Iowa Secretary of State (Clarity ENR final county uploads; county totals reconcile exactly to the State Board of Canvassers canvass summary)
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Republican | 162,947 | 53.4% |
| Christina Bohannan | Democratic | 142,173 | 46.6% |
| Write-in | 260 | 0.1% | |
| Total | 305,380 |
Source: Iowa Secretary of State, Election Night Reporting / Precinct Results by County (electionresults.iowa.gov). Status: Certified, Iowa county canvass results as published by the Iowa Secretary of State (Clarity ENR final county uploads; county totals reconcile exactly to the State Board of Canvassers canvass summary)
Held under the district lines in effect at the time. Those boundaries differ from the 2026 district.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | Republican | 212,088 | 51.2% |
| Abby Finkenauer | Democratic | 201,347 | 48.6% |
| Write-in | 434 | 0.1% | |
| Total | 413,869 |
Source: Iowa Secretary of State, Election Night Reporting / Precinct Results by County (electionresults.iowa.gov). Status: Certified, Iowa county canvass results as published by the Iowa Secretary of State (Clarity ENR final county uploads; county totals reconcile exactly to the State Board of Canvassers canvass summary)
Certified results from state or county election authorities, as compiled in the Candidate Alerts precinct results database (public API candidatealerts.com/api/district-results). Totals are sums of certified precinct and county-level rows.
Demographics
2020 Census demographics by district are not yet published in this data set.
0 of 408 precincts are above 50%, and 6 are above 25%. Source: Census American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year block groups, allocated to current precinct shapes by area.
Early vote layer: 2026 general (IA-01, counties in district)
Unofficial. Source: civicAPI and Call the Map (callthemap.com/early-vote), republishing Iowa Secretary of State counts. Official data: sos.iowa.gov.
Data as of October 30, 2026. 118,521 early ballots cast in the 20 counties touching this district: D 49.4%, R 30.5%, No Party / Other 20.0% by registration (D+18.9). Party is registration, not vote. Early vote is published by county only; counties split by the district are counted in full, so this is approximate. Full Iowa early vote page.
Shading: registered Democrats minus registered Republicans among early ballots cast (mail returned plus in person), by county. County shapes: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary file cb_2023_us_county_20m.
Early vote by county (20)
| County | Mail requested | Mail returned | Return rate | In person | Total cast | D / Other / R share of cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | 7,020 | 5,784 | 82.4% | 23,328 | 29,112 | 67.3% / 20.2% / 12.5% |
| Scott | 8,758 | 7,584 | 86.6% | 19,021 | 26,605 | 47.0% / 22.8% / 30.2% |
| Warren | 3,111 | 2,682 | 86.2% | 5,844 | 8,526 | 42.5% / 19.6% / 37.9% |
| Clinton | 2,922 | 2,596 | 88.8% | 4,307 | 6,903 | 44.8% / 22.3% / 32.9% |
| Des Moines | 2,079 | 1,845 | 88.7% | 3,248 | 5,093 | 51.9% / 17.0% / 31.1% |
| Cedar | 1,031 | 913 | 88.6% | 4,072 | 4,985 | 34.2% / 19.5% / 46.3% |
| Muscatine | 1,974 | 1,737 | 88.0% | 3,233 | 4,970 | 46.6% / 17.9% / 35.6% |
| Jasper | 1,786 | 1,576 | 88.2% | 3,233 | 4,809 | 43.7% / 17.7% / 38.6% |
| Marion | 2,257 | 1,977 | 87.6% | 2,262 | 4,239 | 33.2% / 18.5% / 48.3% |
| Lee | 1,753 | 1,583 | 90.3% | 2,536 | 4,119 | 50.2% / 16.9% / 32.9% |
| Washington | 1,185 | 1,072 | 90.5% | 2,110 | 3,182 | 37.5% / 18.6% / 43.9% |
| Jefferson | 856 | 715 | 83.5% | 2,298 | 3,013 | 57.9% / 15.1% / 27.0% |
| Jones | 1,271 | 1,131 | 89.0% | 1,569 | 2,700 | 37.1% / 25.1% / 37.7% |
| Mahaska | 1,053 | 892 | 84.7% | 1,588 | 2,480 | 25.7% / 16.6% / 57.7% |
| Jackson | 1,318 | 1,168 | 88.6% | 1,235 | 2,403 | 44.3% / 15.6% / 40.1% |
| Iowa | 860 | 782 | 90.9% | 1,360 | 2,142 | 35.0% / 23.9% / 41.0% |
| Louisa | 388 | 341 | 87.9% | 737 | 1,078 | 37.0% / 18.6% / 44.3% |
| Keokuk | 415 | 350 | 84.3% | 465 | 815 | 33.4% / 17.1% / 49.6% |
| Henry | 787 | 688 | 87.4% | 5 | 693 | 40.0% / 14.9% / 45.2% |
| Van Buren | 238 | 192 | 80.7% | 462 | 654 | 26.3% / 14.2% / 59.5% |
Nonpartisan voter information. GOTV Polling does not endorse any candidate.



