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Iowa U.S. Senate (IA-SEN) - Midterms - GOTV Poll
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Interactive map: Iowa by county
Pick a layer, then click or tap a county to open its precinct map, with the county summary (past results, demographics and early vote) on the right.
R+30 or moreR+15-30R+5-15R+0-5D+0-5D+5-15D+15-30D+30 or moreno dataEarly ballots cast by registered party, D minus R, as of October 30, 2026. Party is registration, not vote.
R+30 or moreR+15-30R+5-15R+0-5D+0-5D+5-15D+15-30D+30 or moreno dataCertified result margin, D minus R, by county.
R+30 or moreR+15-30R+5-15R+0-5D+0-5D+5-15D+15-30D+30 or moreno dataCertified result margin, D minus R, by county.
R+30 or moreR+15-30R+5-15R+0-5D+0-5D+5-15D+15-30D+30 or moreno dataCertified result margin, D minus R, by county.
<5%5-15%15-30%30-50%50-70%70%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.
<$40k$40-60k$60-80k$80-100k$100-140k$140k+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.
<1%1-2%2-4%4-8%8-15%15%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.
<0.5%0.5-1%1-2%2-4%4-8%8%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.
<15%15-20%20-25%25-35%35-45%45%+Adults 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher. Census ACS 2020-2024.
<15%15-18%18-21%21-24%24-27%27%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.
<1%1-2%2-4%4-8%8-15%15%+Adults who speak Spanish at home. Census ACS 2020-2024.
<7%7-9%9-11%11-13%13-16%16%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.
<1k1k-2.5k2.5k-5k5k-10k10k-50k50k+Early ballots cast (mail returned plus in person), unofficial.
<35%35-45%45-55%55-60%60-65%65%+Share of early ballots cast by voters 65 and over, unofficial.
<8%8-12%12-16%16-20%20-25%25%+Share of early ballots cast by voters 18 to 40, unofficial.
GOTV poll results are published as statewide and district totals only; the map shows past results, early vote and demographics.
Statewide races are mapped by county. Precinct maps are on each U.S. House district poll page. Past results: certified county results from the Iowa Secretary of State. Early vote: civicAPI and Call the Map, republishing Iowa Secretary of State counts, as of October 30, 2026.
Top Line Poll Results LiveIA-SEN U.S. Senate: Ashley Hinson 53.5%, Josh Turek 44.5% (Hinson +9.0), n = 994994 respondents · MOE ±3.1 pts · weightedExpand to see more
U.S. Senate (IA-SEN) #IASEN
RAshley Hinson53.5%
DJosh Turek44.5%
n = 994, weighted. Undecided 2.0%
Methodology LiveIA-SEN: 994 respondents · MOE ±3.1 ptsFielding since October 30, 2026 · data as of Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM PTExpand to see more
- One poll covers all six races; this methodology is the same on every race page. Respondents and margin of error by race: IA-SEN (#IASEN): 994 respondents, MOE ±3.1 pts; IA-GOV (#IAGOV): 993 respondents, MOE ±3.1 pts; IA-01 (#IA01): 245 respondents, MOE ±6.3 pts; IA-02 (#IA02): 215 respondents, MOE ±6.7 pts; IA-03 (#IA03): 350 respondents, MOE ±5.2 pts; IA-04 (#IA04): 180 respondents, MOE ±7.3 pts.
- Margin of error: plus or minus 3.1 points for the full sample (95% confidence); 3.3 with the design effect from weighting.
- Mode: Text-to-web. Registered Iowa voters, matched to the voter file. Collection has closed.
- Weighting: Weighted to the recalled 2024 presidential vote targets shown on this page (Trump, Harris, other). Region targets are not applied yet because respondents are placed by county only. Unweighted results and respondent counts are shown alongside.
- Official release as of November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT.
- Responses are still coming in. Results are published live on the GOTVPolling.com and ResultsPAC.com poll pages, and updated results, crosstabs, methodology and an expanded universe may be published from time to time.
Crosstabs LiveParty registration: Democratic Turek 96%; Republican Hinson 84%Age: 65+ Turek 62%; 50-64 Turek 56%; 35-49 Turek 65%Expand to see more
U.S. Senate (IA-SEN) vote, unweighted, statewide. Groups under 30 respondents are not shown.
| Party registration | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 565 | 95.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Republican | 421 | 13.3% | 83.8% | 2.9% |
| Non-Partisan | n too small | |||
| Age | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65+ | 751 | 61.5% | 37.3% | 1.2% |
| 50-64 | 151 | 56.3% | 41.7% | 2.0% |
| 35-49 | 83 | 65.1% | 27.7% | 7.2% |
| 18-34 | n too small | |||
| Sex | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | 529 | 51.8% | 45.7% | 2.5% |
| Women | 465 | 71.2% | 27.5% | 1.3% |
Graphics downloads for IA-SEN #IASEN
- U.S. Senate: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Senate by age: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Senate by district: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Senate by ethnicity: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Senate by party: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Senate by sex: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Senate by vote frequency: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
Poll results · General election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Poll results
Respondents (completed): 994. Last updated: Nov 3, 6:59 PM PT. Reload the page for the latest numbers while responses come in.
Toplines are weighted; unweighted shares and respondent counts are shown with each question. Margin of error for the full sample: plus or minus 3.1 points (unweighted, 95% confidence). Crosstab groups with fewer than 30 respondents are not shown.
U.S. Senate vote
Weighted shares among completed respondents who answered. n = 994.
Unweighted: Josh Turek 60.9%, Ashley Hinson 37.2%, Undecided 1.9%.
Crosstabs (unweighted)
| Party registration | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 565 | 95.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Republican | 421 | 13.3% | 83.8% | 2.9% |
| Non-Partisan | n too small | |||
| Age | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65+ | 751 | 61.5% | 37.3% | 1.2% |
| 50-64 | 151 | 56.3% | 41.7% | 2.0% |
| 35-49 | 83 | 65.1% | 27.7% | 7.2% |
| 18-34 | n too small | |||
| Sex | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | 529 | 51.8% | 45.7% | 2.5% |
| Women | 465 | 71.2% | 27.5% | 1.3% |
| Ethnicity | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European | 863 | 60.5% | 37.5% | 2.0% |
| Not on file | 103 | 61.2% | 37.9% | 1.0% |
| Hispanic and Portuguese | n too small | |||
| Likely African-American | n too small | |||
| East and South Asian | n too small | |||
| Other | n too small | |||
Weighting: Weighted to the recalled 2024 presidential vote targets shown on this page (Trump, Harris, other). Region targets are not applied yet because respondents are placed by county only. Unweighted results and respondent counts are shown alongside.
Candidates on the ballot
- Josh Turek (D)
- Thomas Laehn (L)
- Ashley Hinson (R)
Full candidate details: race page.
Past results in this area
2024 President (R / D / other): 55.7% / 42.5% / 1.8%
2022 Governor: 58.0% / 39.5% (R / D)
Adults who speak Spanish at home: 4.3% (ACS 2020-2024 5-year, aggregated to current precincts)
Areas
| Area | Weighting cell | Weighting share | 2024 President R two-party | 2022 U.S. Senate R two-party | 2022 Governor R two-party | 2020 President R two-party | Spanish at home (adults) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | C1 | 5.3% | 31.3% | 29.5% | 31.0% | 29.7% | 6.3% |
| Polk County: middle third of precincts | C1 | 5.2% | 45.5% | 46.0% | 48.6% | 44.2% | 6.3% |
| Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | C1 | 5.2% | 54.4% | 53.2% | 56.1% | 51.8% | 6.3% |
| Linn County | C2 | 7.7% | 45.0% | 45.5% | 47.4% | 43.0% | 2.1% |
| Scott County | C1 | 5.2% | 52.0% | 51.8% | 55.7% | 48.2% | 2.8% |
| Johnson County | C2 | 5.2% | 30.7% | 28.7% | 29.6% | 27.9% | 4.0% |
| Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | C2 | 23.1% | 66.0% | 66.3% | 69.9% | 63.2% | 6.5% |
| Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | C2 | 18.5% | 59.2% | 58.5% | 62.7% | 56.1% | 2.3% |
| Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | C1 | 14.8% | 63.4% | 62.2% | 66.0% | 60.5% | 2.9% |
| Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | C1 | 10.0% | 63.8% | 63.7% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 3.6% |
Areas are counties; large counties are split into thirds of precincts by 2024 presidential lean, and small counties are pooled. Past results are certified results. Spanish at home is the county figure (within this district for House races) from the ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates, so the three thirds of one county show the same value.
Weighting cells
- C1: Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts; Polk County: middle third of precincts; Polk County: most Republican third of precincts; Scott County; Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties); Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties)
- C2: Linn County; Johnson County; Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties); Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties)
Weighting targets
| Variable | Category | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Region | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | 5.3% |
| Region | Polk County: middle third of precincts | 5.2% |
| Region | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | 5.2% |
| Region | Linn County | 7.7% |
| Region | Scott County | 5.2% |
| Region | Johnson County | 5.2% |
| Region | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | 23.1% |
| Region | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | 18.5% |
| Region | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | 14.8% |
| Region | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | 10.0% |
| Recalled 2024 vote | Trump | 55.5% |
| Recalled 2024 vote | Harris | 42.8% |
| Recalled 2024 vote | Other | 1.8% |
| Age x gender (adults) | M_18_29 | 10.9% |
| Age x gender (adults) | M_30_44 | 12.5% |
| Age x gender (adults) | M_45_64 | 15.6% |
| Age x gender (adults) | M_65p | 10.8% |
| Age x gender (adults) | F_18_29 | 10.2% |
| Age x gender (adults) | F_30_44 | 11.9% |
| Age x gender (adults) | F_45_64 | 15.3% |
| Age x gender (adults) | F_65p | 12.7% |
ZIP code key
Show 956 ZIP codes and their areas
| ZIP | Area | Also in |
|---|---|---|
| 50001 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50002 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50003 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50005 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50006 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 19% |
| 50007 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 50008 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S02 47% |
| 50009 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | S02 16%; S01 7% |
| 50010 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50012 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50013 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50014 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50020 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 11% |
| 50021 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | S02 28% |
| 50022 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50023 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | S02 19% |
| 50025 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50026 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50027 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50028 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50029 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50031 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50032 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 50033 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50034 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50035 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | S01 5% |
| 50036 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50038 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50039 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50040 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50042 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50044 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50046 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50047 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S02 7%; S03 6% |
| 50048 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50049 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50050 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 10% |
| 50051 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50052 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S02 46% |
| 50054 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50055 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S09 39% |
| 50056 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50057 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50058 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S10 20% |
| 50060 | Polk County: middle third of precincts | S10 35%; S01 10% |
| 50061 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S10 31%; S02 9% |
| 50062 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50063 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50064 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 14% |
| 50065 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50066 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50067 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50068 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S01 8% |
| 50069 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50070 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50071 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50072 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50073 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 50074 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50075 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50076 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50078 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50101 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50102 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50103 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50104 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S08 22% |
| 50105 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50106 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50107 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 16% |
| 50108 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50109 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | S10 38% |
| 50110 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50111 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | S02 17%; S10 7% |
| 50112 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50115 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50116 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50117 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50118 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50119 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50120 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50122 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50123 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S01 42% |
| 50124 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50125 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50126 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50127 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50128 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50129 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50130 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50131 | Polk County: middle third of precincts | S01 13%; S03 5% |
| 50132 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50133 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50134 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50135 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50136 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50137 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50138 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50139 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S10 10% |
| 50140 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50141 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S09 16% |
| 50142 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50143 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50144 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50145 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50146 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50147 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S02 35% |
| 50148 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50149 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50150 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50151 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S09 14% |
| 50152 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50153 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50154 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S08 14% |
| 50155 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50156 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S10 11% |
| 50157 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50158 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50160 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50161 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S09 5% |
| 50162 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50163 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50164 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50165 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S01 48% |
| 50166 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50167 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50168 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50170 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50171 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50173 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50174 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50201 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50206 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 17% |
| 50207 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50208 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50210 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S10 11% |
| 50211 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50212 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50213 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50214 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50216 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50217 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 26% |
| 50218 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50219 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50220 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 10% |
| 50222 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50223 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50225 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50226 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 50227 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50228 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50229 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S10 31% |
| 50230 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 45% |
| 50231 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50232 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50233 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50234 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S09 23% |
| 50235 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 16% |
| 50236 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50237 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | S09 29% |
| 50238 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S01 9%; S03 5% |
| 50239 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50240 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S09 45% |
| 50241 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50242 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50243 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50244 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50246 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50247 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50248 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50249 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50250 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50251 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50252 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50254 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50255 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50256 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50257 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S09 7% |
| 50258 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 39% |
| 50261 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50262 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50263 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50264 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50265 | Polk County: middle third of precincts | S01 41% |
| 50266 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S02 20%; S01 14% |
| 50268 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 50269 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50271 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50272 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50273 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50274 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50275 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50276 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 37% |
| 50277 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50278 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50309 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 50310 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 50311 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 50312 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 50313 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | S03 42%; S02 14% |
| 50314 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 50315 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | S02 42% |
| 50316 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 50317 | Polk County: middle third of precincts | S03 42%; S01 7% |
| 50319 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 50320 | Polk County: middle third of precincts | S01 35%; S09 8% |
| 50321 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | S02 21% |
| 50322 | Polk County: middle third of precincts | S01 21% |
| 50323 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S02 22%; S01 7% |
| 50324 | Polk County: most Democratic third of precincts | |
| 50325 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S02 46% |
| 50327 | Polk County: most Republican third of precincts | |
| 50401 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50420 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50421 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50423 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50424 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50426 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50428 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50430 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50431 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50432 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50433 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 19% |
| 50434 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50435 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50436 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50438 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50439 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50440 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50441 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50444 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50446 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 28% |
| 50447 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50448 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50449 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S08 19% |
| 50450 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S08 12% |
| 50451 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50452 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50453 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50454 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50455 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50456 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50457 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S08 43% |
| 50458 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50459 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50460 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50461 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50464 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50465 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50466 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50467 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50468 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50469 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50470 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50471 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50472 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50473 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50475 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S08 21% |
| 50476 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50477 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50478 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50479 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 18% |
| 50480 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50482 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 45% |
| 50483 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50484 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50501 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50511 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50514 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50515 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50516 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50517 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50518 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50519 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50520 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50521 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50522 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50523 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50524 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50525 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50527 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50528 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50529 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50530 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50532 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50533 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50535 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50536 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50538 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50539 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50540 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50541 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50542 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50543 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50544 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50545 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50546 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50548 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50551 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50552 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50554 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50556 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50557 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50558 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50559 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50560 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50561 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50562 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50563 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50565 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50566 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50567 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50568 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50569 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50570 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50574 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50575 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50577 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50578 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50579 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50581 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50582 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50583 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50585 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50586 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50588 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50590 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50591 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50594 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50595 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50597 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50598 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50599 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50601 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 18% |
| 50602 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50603 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50604 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50605 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S08 41% |
| 50606 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50607 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50608 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50609 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 26% |
| 50611 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50612 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50613 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50616 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50619 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50621 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 14% |
| 50622 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50624 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50625 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 12% |
| 50626 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50627 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50628 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50629 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50630 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50631 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50632 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 12% |
| 50633 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 50634 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50635 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S07 15% |
| 50636 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50638 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50641 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50642 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50643 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50644 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50645 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50647 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50648 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50650 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50651 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50652 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50653 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50654 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50655 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50657 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50658 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50659 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50660 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50662 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50664 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50665 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50666 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50667 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50668 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50669 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50670 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50671 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50672 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50673 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50674 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50675 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50676 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50677 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50680 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50681 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50682 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50701 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50702 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50703 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50707 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 50801 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50830 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50833 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50835 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50836 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50837 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50839 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50840 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50841 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50842 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50843 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50845 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50846 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50848 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50849 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50851 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50853 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50854 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50857 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50858 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50859 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50860 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50861 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50862 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50863 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 50864 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51001 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51002 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51003 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51004 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51005 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51006 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51007 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51008 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51009 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51010 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51011 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51012 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51014 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51016 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51018 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51019 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51020 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51022 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51023 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51024 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51025 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51026 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51027 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51028 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51029 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51030 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51031 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51033 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51034 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51035 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51036 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51037 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51038 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51039 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51040 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51041 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51044 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51045 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51046 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51047 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51048 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51049 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51050 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51052 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51053 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51054 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51055 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51056 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51058 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51060 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51061 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51062 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51063 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51104 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51106 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51108 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51109 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51111 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51201 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51230 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51231 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51232 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51234 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51235 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51237 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51238 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51239 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51240 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51241 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51242 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51243 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51244 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51245 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51246 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51247 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51248 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51249 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51250 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51301 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51331 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51333 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51334 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51338 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51341 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51342 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51343 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51345 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51346 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51347 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51350 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51351 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51354 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51355 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51357 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51358 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51360 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51363 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51364 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51366 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51401 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51430 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51431 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51432 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51433 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51436 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51439 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51440 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51441 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51442 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51443 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51444 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51445 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51446 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51447 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51448 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51449 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51450 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51451 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51452 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51453 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51454 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51455 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51458 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51459 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51460 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51461 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51462 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 8% |
| 51463 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51465 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51466 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51467 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51501 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51503 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51510 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51520 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51521 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51523 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51525 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51526 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51527 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51528 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51529 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51530 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51531 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51532 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 13% |
| 51533 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 20% |
| 51534 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51535 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 36% |
| 51536 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51537 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51540 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51541 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S10 14% |
| 51542 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51543 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51544 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 31% |
| 51545 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51546 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51548 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51549 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51551 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51552 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 50% |
| 51553 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51554 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51555 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51557 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51558 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51559 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51560 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51561 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51562 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51565 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51566 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51570 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51571 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51572 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51573 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51575 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51576 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51577 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51601 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S07 10% |
| 51630 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51631 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51632 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51636 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51637 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51638 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51639 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51640 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51645 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | S10 18% |
| 51646 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 51647 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51648 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51649 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51650 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51652 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51653 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51654 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 51656 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52001 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52002 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52003 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52030 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52031 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S08 7% |
| 52032 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S09 25% |
| 52033 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S09 31% |
| 52035 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52036 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52037 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52038 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52039 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52040 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52041 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52042 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52043 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52044 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52045 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52046 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52047 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52048 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52049 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52050 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52052 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52053 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52054 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S08 14% |
| 52056 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52057 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52060 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52064 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52065 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52066 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52068 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52069 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52070 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52071 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52072 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52073 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52074 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52075 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52076 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52077 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52078 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52079 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S09 27% |
| 52101 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52132 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52133 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52134 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52135 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52136 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52140 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52141 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52142 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52144 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52146 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52147 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52151 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52154 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52155 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52156 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52157 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52158 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52159 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52160 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52161 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52162 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52163 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52164 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52165 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52166 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52168 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52169 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52170 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52171 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52172 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52175 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52201 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52202 | Linn County | |
| 52203 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S06 31% |
| 52205 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S04 6% |
| 52207 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52208 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S08 21% |
| 52209 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52210 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52211 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52212 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52213 | Linn County | |
| 52214 | Linn County | |
| 52215 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52216 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52217 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52218 | Linn County | S08 34% |
| 52219 | Linn County | |
| 52220 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52221 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S09 28% |
| 52222 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | S09 32% |
| 52223 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52224 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52227 | Linn County | S06 8% |
| 52228 | Linn County | S06 5% |
| 52231 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52232 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52233 | Linn County | |
| 52235 | Johnson County | |
| 52236 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52237 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52240 | Johnson County | |
| 52241 | Johnson County | |
| 52242 | Johnson County | |
| 52245 | Johnson County | |
| 52246 | Johnson County | |
| 52247 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S06 23% |
| 52248 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52251 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52252 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52253 | Linn County | S09 48% |
| 52254 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52255 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52301 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52302 | Linn County | |
| 52305 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S04 44% |
| 52306 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52307 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52309 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52310 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52314 | Linn County | |
| 52316 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52317 | Johnson County | |
| 52318 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52320 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52321 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52322 | Johnson County | |
| 52323 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52324 | Linn County | |
| 52325 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S06 15% |
| 52326 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52327 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S06 20% |
| 52328 | Linn County | |
| 52329 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52330 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52332 | Linn County | |
| 52333 | Johnson County | |
| 52334 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52335 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52336 | Linn County | |
| 52337 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52338 | Johnson County | S04 5% |
| 52339 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52340 | Johnson County | |
| 52341 | Linn County | |
| 52342 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52347 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S08 34% |
| 52349 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 52351 | Linn County | |
| 52352 | Linn County | S08 28% |
| 52353 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52355 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52356 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S06 9% |
| 52358 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S06 10% |
| 52359 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52361 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52362 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52401 | Linn County | |
| 52402 | Linn County | |
| 52403 | Linn County | |
| 52404 | Linn County | |
| 52405 | Linn County | |
| 52411 | Linn County | |
| 52501 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52530 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52531 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52533 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52534 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52535 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52536 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52537 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52540 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52542 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52543 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52544 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52549 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52550 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52551 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S10 7% |
| 52552 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52553 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S10 33% |
| 52554 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S09 37% |
| 52555 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52556 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52560 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52561 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52563 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S10 19% |
| 52565 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52567 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52568 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52569 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S03 6% |
| 52570 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S10 24% |
| 52571 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52572 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52573 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52574 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52576 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52577 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52580 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52581 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52583 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S03 43% |
| 52584 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52585 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52586 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52588 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S10 33% |
| 52590 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | S03 37% |
| 52591 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52593 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52594 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 52595 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52601 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52620 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52621 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52623 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52625 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52626 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52627 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52630 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52632 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52635 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52638 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52640 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52641 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52644 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52645 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52646 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52647 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52649 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52651 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52652 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52653 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52654 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52655 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52656 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52657 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52658 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52659 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52701 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52720 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52721 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52722 | Scott County | |
| 52726 | Scott County | |
| 52727 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52728 | Scott County | |
| 52729 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52730 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52731 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52732 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52737 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52738 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52739 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52742 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52745 | Scott County | |
| 52746 | Scott County | |
| 52747 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S05 34% |
| 52748 | Scott County | |
| 52749 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52750 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52751 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52752 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52753 | Scott County | |
| 52754 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52755 | Johnson County | |
| 52756 | Scott County | |
| 52757 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52758 | Scott County | |
| 52760 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52761 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52765 | Scott County | S09 25% |
| 52766 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | S06 9% |
| 52767 | Scott County | |
| 52768 | Scott County | |
| 52769 | Scott County | |
| 52771 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52772 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52773 | Scott County | |
| 52774 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52776 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52777 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52778 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 52801 | Scott County | |
| 52802 | Scott County | |
| 52803 | Scott County | |
| 52804 | Scott County | |
| 52806 | Scott County | |
| 52807 | Scott County | |
| 53801 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 53806 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 53810 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 53811 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 53821 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 56027 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 57013 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 57025 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 57034 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 57038 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 61025 | Other counties, 2nd District area (21 counties) | |
| 61036 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 61041 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 61074 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 61201 | Scott County | |
| 61242 | Scott County | S09 37% |
| 61244 | Scott County | |
| 61252 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 61256 | Scott County | |
| 61259 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 61264 | Scott County | |
| 61272 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 61275 | Scott County | |
| 61285 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 61425 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 61437 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 62341 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 62379 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 63430 | Other counties, 1st District area (18 counties) | |
| 63565 | Other counties, 3rd District area (20 counties) | |
| 68005 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68023 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68030 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68048 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68071 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68102 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68107 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68108 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68110 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68112 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) | |
| 68410 | Other counties, 4th District area (36 counties) |
Respondents give a ZIP code, which places each response in an area. No names or addresses are collected.
Request a Poll
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Tell us the state, the race and what you need to know. The field desk replies with a plan: the mode, the sample and the questions.
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- Results mapped to the precinct, crosstabs on every question
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Nonpartisan voter information. GOTV Polling does not endorse any candidate.
Voting history of respondents: U.S. Senate (#IASEN)
Aggregate results only. Groups under 30 respondents are held back. All respondents are high-turnout voters who voted in each of the last four general elections.
Sample: 930 completed respondents answered the U.S. Senate question (published topline n). Margin of error plus or minus 3.4 points at 95% confidence (including the weighting design effect). Weighted to recalled 2024 presidential vote, the same method as the published toplines. Voting history comes from the voter file record matched to each respondent (930 of 930 matched). All numbers are polling aggregates. Any group with fewer than 30 respondents is held back. Subgroup margins of error are larger than the topline.
Published topline: Josh Turek 44.3%, Ashley Hinson 53.7%, Undecided 2.0%.
Who answered: voting history profile
- Every respondent voted in the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 general elections (all of the last four). These are high-turnout voters, not all registered voters, so these results describe the most reliable part of the electorate.
- New vs habitual: 35 respondents did not vote in the 2016 general; everyone else is a long-run habitual voter. A new-voter comparison is not possible from this sample.
Primary participation, 2018 to 2026 (of 5):
| Group | Respondents | Share |
|---|---|---|
| All 5 primaries | 561 | 60% |
| 4 of 5 primaries | 234 | 25% |
| 2 or 3 of 5 primaries | 135 | 15% |
2024 general, how they voted:
| Group | Respondents | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Early, 2+ weeks out | 282 | 30% |
| Early, final 2 weeks | 391 | 42% |
| Election Day (no early record) | 257 | 28% |
Voter-file vote frequency score:
| Group | Respondents | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Vote frequency 8 (highest) | 561 | 60% |
| Vote frequency 7 | 234 | 25% |
| Vote frequency 5 to 6 | 135 | 15% |
Support by voting history
Primary history:
| Group | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 5 primaries | 561 | 55.9% | 42.4% | 1.7% |
| 4 of 5 primaries | 234 | 32.4% | 66.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 or 3 of 5 primaries | 135 | 25.2% | 70.3% | 4.5% |
2024 voting method:
| Group | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early, 2+ weeks out | 282 | 53.3% | 45.1% | 1.6% |
| Early, final 2 weeks | 391 | 44.4% | 53.0% | 2.6% |
| Election Day (no early record) | 257 | 35.3% | 63.1% | 1.5% |
Vote frequency score:
| Group | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote frequency 8 (highest) | 561 | 55.9% | 42.4% | 1.7% |
| Vote frequency 7 | 234 | 32.4% | 66.5% | 1.1% |
| Vote frequency 5 to 6 | 135 | 25.2% | 70.3% | 4.5% |
Party registration by primary history:
| Group | n | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican, all 5 primaries | 170 | 8.9% | 89.8% | 1.3% |
| Republican, fewer than 5 primaries | 224 | 6.8% | 90.2% | 3.0% |
| Democratic, all 5 primaries | 385 | 93.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Democratic, fewer than 5 primaries | 143 | 94.8% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Other / no party, all 5 primaries | under 30 | held back | held back | held back |
| Other / no party, fewer than 5 primaries | under 30 | held back | held back | held back |
What it means
- Margin among voters in all 5 primaries: Turek +13.4; among those in 2 or 3 of 5: Hinson +45.2.
- Margin among voters who voted early 2+ weeks out in 2024: Turek +8.2; among Election Day voters: Hinson +27.8.
- Within each party support barely moves (Republicans 90% and 90% Hinson, Democrats 94% and 95% Turek), so the gap is mostly party mix.
- Because every respondent is a high-turnout voter, read differences between voting-history groups as differences within the most reliable part of the electorate, not as a turnout model.
- Party and primary history overlap strongly; differences by history group are largely party composition.
Caveats
- Held back (under 30): Other / no party, all 5 primaries, Other / no party, fewer than 5 primaries.
- Early-vote timing is from the voter file's 2024 record, not a 2026 early-vote measure.
