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Iowa U.S. House (IA-02) - Midterms - GOTV Poll
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District map: past elections, early vote and census data
Choose a layer, then select a precinct to see past results and census data for that precinct. GOTV poll results are published as statewide and district totals only.
Choose a layer above. Hover a precinct for its values.
Past results: certified precinct results from the state election office (Iowa Secretary of State, Election Night Reporting), on current precinct shapes. Census: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, ACS 2020-2024 5-year.
Top Line Poll Results LiveIA-02 U.S. House: Lindsay James 60.0%, Joe Mitchell 38.1% (James +21.9), n = 215215 respondents · MOE ±6.7 pts · unweightedExpand to see more
U.S. House (IA-02) #IA02
n = 215, unweighted. Undecided 1.9%
Methodology LiveIA-02: 215 respondents · MOE ±6.7 ptsFielding since October 30, 2026 · data as of Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM PTExpand to see more
- One poll covers all six races; this methodology is the same on every race page. Respondents and margin of error by race: IA-SEN (#IASEN): 994 respondents, MOE ±3.1 pts; IA-GOV (#IAGOV): 993 respondents, MOE ±3.1 pts; IA-01 (#IA01): 245 respondents, MOE ±6.3 pts; IA-02 (#IA02): 215 respondents, MOE ±6.7 pts; IA-03 (#IA03): 350 respondents, MOE ±5.2 pts; IA-04 (#IA04): 180 respondents, MOE ±7.3 pts.
- Margin of error: plus or minus 3.1 points for the full sample (95% confidence); 3.3 with the design effect from weighting.
- Mode: Text-to-web. Registered Iowa voters, matched to the voter file. Collection has closed.
- Weighting: Weighted to the recalled 2024 presidential vote targets shown on this page (Trump, Harris, other). Region targets are not applied yet because respondents are placed by county only. Unweighted results and respondent counts are shown alongside.
- Official release as of November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT.
- Responses are still coming in. Results are published live on the GOTVPolling.com and ResultsPAC.com poll pages, and updated results, crosstabs, methodology and an expanded universe may be published from time to time.
Crosstabs LiveParty registration: Democratic James 99%; Republican Mitchell 85%Age: 65+ James 63%Expand to see more
U.S. House (IA-02) vote, unweighted, IA-02 respondents. Groups under 30 respondents are not shown.
| Party registration | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 118 | 99.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Republican | 94 | 10.6% | 85.1% | 4.3% |
| Non-Partisan | n too small | |||
| Age | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65+ | 177 | 62.7% | 35.6% | 1.7% |
| 50-64 | n too small | |||
| 35-49 | n too small | |||
| 18-34 | n too small | |||
| Sex | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | 117 | 50.4% | 47.9% | 1.7% |
| Women | 98 | 71.4% | 26.5% | 2.0% |
Graphics downloads for IA-02 #IA02
- IA-02 U.S. House (unweighted): PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- House margin by district (map): PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Governor by district: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
- Senate by district: PNG 1200x675 · PNG 1080x1080 · SVG
Poll results
Respondents (completed): 215. Last updated: Nov 3, 6:59 PM PT. Reload the page for the latest numbers while responses come in.
All results are unweighted. Margin of error for the full sample: plus or minus 6.7 points (unweighted, 95% confidence). Crosstab groups with fewer than 30 respondents are not shown.
U.S. House vote
Unweighted shares among completed respondents who answered. n = 215.
Crosstabs (unweighted)
| Party registration | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 118 | 99.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Republican | 94 | 10.6% | 85.1% | 4.3% |
| Non-Partisan | n too small | |||
| Age | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65+ | 177 | 62.7% | 35.6% | 1.7% |
| 50-64 | n too small | |||
| 35-49 | n too small | |||
| 18-34 | n too small | |||
| Sex | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | 117 | 50.4% | 47.9% | 1.7% |
| Women | 98 | 71.4% | 26.5% | 2.0% |
| Ethnicity | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European | 184 | 59.8% | 38.6% | 1.6% |
| Not on file | n too small | |||
| Likely African-American | n too small | |||
| Hispanic and Portuguese | n too small | |||
| Other | n too small | |||
| East and South Asian | n too small | |||
Weighting: Unweighted. No weighting targets are applied to these results.
Voting history of respondents: U.S. House IA-02 (#IA02)
Aggregate results only. Groups under 30 respondents are held back. All respondents are high-turnout voters who voted in each of the last four general elections.
Sample: 201 completed respondents answered the U.S. House IA-02 question (published topline n). Margin of error plus or minus 6.9 points at 95% confidence. UNWEIGHTED, matching the published topline for this district (no weighting targets). Voting history comes from the voter file record matched to each respondent (201 of 201 matched). All numbers are polling aggregates. Any group with fewer than 30 respondents is held back. Subgroup margins of error are larger than the topline.
Published topline: Joe Mitchell 38.3%, Lindsay James 59.7%, Undecided 2.0%.
Who answered: voting history profile
- Every respondent voted in the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 general elections (all of the last four). These are high-turnout voters, not all registered voters, so these results describe the most reliable part of the electorate.
- New vs habitual: voters who did not vote in the 2016 general (newer voters) number under 30 and are held back; everyone else is a long-run habitual voter. A new-voter comparison is not possible from this sample.
Primary participation, 2018 to 2026 (of 5):
| Group | Respondents | Share |
|---|---|---|
| All 5 primaries | 116 | 58% |
| 4 of 5 primaries | 53 | 26% |
| 2 or 3 of 5 primaries | 32 | 16% |
2024 general, how they voted:
| Group | Respondents | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Early, 2+ weeks out | 68 | 34% |
| Early, final 2 weeks | 77 | 38% |
| Election Day (no early record) | 56 | 28% |
Voter-file vote frequency score:
| Group | Respondents | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Vote frequency 8 (highest) | 116 | 58% |
| Vote frequency 7 | 53 | 26% |
| Vote frequency 5 to 6 | 32 | 16% |
Support by voting history
Primary history:
| Group | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 5 primaries | 116 | 76.7% | 22.4% | 0.9% |
| 4 of 5 primaries | 53 | 39.6% | 56.6% | 3.8% |
| 2 or 3 of 5 primaries | 32 | 31.2% | 65.6% | 3.1% |
2024 voting method:
| Group | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early, 2+ weeks out | 68 | 72.1% | 27.9% | 0.0% |
| Early, final 2 weeks | 77 | 59.7% | 40.3% | 0.0% |
| Election Day (no early record) | thin | held back | held back | held back |
Vote frequency score:
| Group | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote frequency 8 (highest) | 116 | 76.7% | 22.4% | 0.9% |
| Vote frequency 7 | 53 | 39.6% | 56.6% | 3.8% |
| Vote frequency 5 to 6 | 32 | 31.2% | 65.6% | 3.1% |
Party registration by primary history:
| Group | n | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican, all 5 primaries | under 30 | held back | held back | held back |
| Republican, fewer than 5 primaries | 59 | 11.9% | 83.1% | 5.1% |
| Democratic, all 5 primaries | 87 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Democratic, fewer than 5 primaries | under 30 | held back | held back | held back |
| Other / no party, all 5 primaries | under 30 | held back | held back | held back |
| Other / no party, fewer than 5 primaries | under 30 | held back | held back | held back |
What it means
- Margin among voters in all 5 primaries: James +54.3; among those in 2 or 3 of 5: Mitchell +34.4.
- Margin among voters who voted early 2+ weeks out in 2024: James +44.1; among Election Day voters: n/a (held back).
- Within each party support barely moves, so the gap is mostly party mix.
- Because every respondent is a high-turnout voter, read differences between voting-history groups as differences within the most reliable part of the electorate, not as a turnout model.
- Party and primary history overlap strongly; differences by history group are largely party composition.
Caveats
- IA-02 is UNWEIGHTED. The Election Day group is held back as too thin to publish.
- Held back (under 30): Republican, all 5 primaries, Democratic, fewer than 5 primaries, Other / no party, all 5 primaries, Other / no party, fewer than 5 primaries, Election Day (no early record).
- Early-vote timing is from the voter file's 2024 record, not a 2026 early-vote measure.
Race profile: Iowa's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. House · Iowa · District 2 · General election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Candidates on the November 3 ballot
Federal campaign finance filings for this seat: FEC election page (FEC registration is not the same as ballot qualification).
Certified candidates
- Lindsay James Democratic
- Dave Bushaw Independent
- Rick Stewart Libertarian
- Joe Mitchell Republican
Certified candidate list from Candidate Alerts, as of 2026-09-24, based on Iowa Secretary of State; official list. Includes candidates the database marks as on the November 3 ballot. Incumbent tags here follow the database.
Past election results
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | Republican | 233,340 | 57.1% |
| Sarah Corkery | Democratic | 169,740 | 41.5% |
| Jody Madlom Puffett | 5,381 | 1.3% | |
| Write-in | 341 | 0.1% | |
| Total | 408,802 |
Source: Iowa Secretary of State, Election Night Reporting / Precinct Results by County (electionresults.iowa.gov). Status: Certified, Iowa county canvass results as published by the Iowa Secretary of State (Clarity ENR final county uploads; county totals reconcile exactly to the State Board of Canvassers canvass summary)
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson | Republican | 172,181 | 54.1% |
| Liz Mathis | Democratic | 145,940 | 45.8% |
| Write-in | 278 | 0.1% | |
| Total | 318,399 |
Source: Iowa Secretary of State, Election Night Reporting / Precinct Results by County (electionresults.iowa.gov). Status: Certified, Iowa county canvass results as published by the Iowa Secretary of State (Clarity ENR final county uploads; county totals reconcile exactly to the State Board of Canvassers canvass summary)
Held under the district lines in effect at the time. Those boundaries differ from the 2026 district.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Republican | 196,885 | 49.9% |
| Rita R. Hart | Democratic | 196,853 | 49.9% |
| Write-in | 703 | 0.2% | |
| Total | 394,441 |
Source: Iowa Secretary of State, Election Night Reporting / Precinct Results by County (electionresults.iowa.gov). Status: Certified, Iowa county canvass results as published by the Iowa Secretary of State (Clarity ENR final county uploads; county totals reconcile exactly to the State Board of Canvassers canvass summary)
Certified results from state or county election authorities, as compiled in the Candidate Alerts precinct results database (public API candidatealerts.com/api/district-results). Totals are sums of certified precinct and county-level rows.
Demographics
2020 Census demographics by district are not yet published in this data set.
0 of 413 precincts are above 50%, and 0 are above 25%. Source: Census American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year block groups, allocated to current precinct shapes by area.
Early vote layer: 2026 general (IA-02, counties in district)
Unofficial. Source: civicAPI and Call the Map (callthemap.com/early-vote), republishing Iowa Secretary of State counts. Official data: sos.iowa.gov.
Data as of October 30, 2026. 102,091 early ballots cast in the 22 counties touching this district: D 49.1%, R 31.2%, No Party / Other 19.7% by registration (D+17.9). Party is registration, not vote. Early vote is published by county only; counties split by the district are counted in full, so this is approximate. Full Iowa early vote page.
Shading: registered Democrats minus registered Republicans among early ballots cast (mail returned plus in person), by county. County shapes: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary file cb_2023_us_county_20m.
Early vote by county (22)
| County | Mail requested | Mail returned | Return rate | In person | Total cast | D / Other / R share of cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linn | 11,634 | 10,328 | 88.8% | 19,211 | 29,539 | 55.9% / 20.8% / 23.3% |
| Black Hawk | 7,014 | 6,297 | 89.8% | 9,308 | 15,605 | 54.3% / 18.7% / 27.0% |
| Dubuque | 7,521 | 6,815 | 90.6% | 8,611 | 15,426 | 54.8% / 14.8% / 30.4% |
| Cerro Gordo | 1,863 | 1,662 | 89.2% | 4,227 | 5,889 | 46.4% / 22.0% / 31.7% |
| Winneshiek | 1,101 | 961 | 87.3% | 3,748 | 4,709 | 43.7% / 23.2% / 33.1% |
| Bremer | 1,400 | 1,244 | 88.9% | 2,341 | 3,585 | 39.5% / 25.7% / 34.8% |
| Poweshiek | 1,045 | 916 | 87.7% | 1,695 | 2,611 | 49.5% / 21.3% / 29.3% |
| Buchanan | 912 | 796 | 87.3% | 1,584 | 2,380 | 42.1% / 23.3% / 34.6% |
| Benton | 1,059 | 923 | 87.2% | 1,237 | 2,160 | 35.3% / 19.4% / 45.3% |
| Delaware | 976 | 883 | 90.5% | 1,165 | 2,048 | 34.5% / 21.6% / 43.9% |
| Fayette | 1,043 | 940 | 90.1% | 1,090 | 2,030 | 42.4% / 19.8% / 37.9% |
| Chickasaw | 795 | 697 | 87.7% | 1,228 | 1,925 | 39.0% / 19.2% / 41.8% |
| Hardin | 903 | 758 | 83.9% | 1,105 | 1,863 | 31.9% / 17.2% / 50.9% |
| Allamakee | 636 | 560 | 88.1% | 1,229 | 1,789 | 35.6% / 15.7% / 48.7% |
| Floyd | 719 | 620 | 86.2% | 1,135 | 1,755 | 42.4% / 24.4% / 33.2% |
| Clayton | 797 | 698 | 87.6% | 1,008 | 1,706 | 39.7% / 20.2% / 40.2% |
| Butler | 791 | 706 | 89.3% | 793 | 1,499 | 27.4% / 17.2% / 55.4% |
| Grundy | 782 | 693 | 88.6% | 703 | 1,396 | 29.1% / 15.4% / 55.5% |
| Mitchell | 498 | 459 | 92.2% | 868 | 1,327 | 37.9% / 19.6% / 42.5% |
| Tama | 650 | 538 | 82.8% | 727 | 1,265 | 35.8% / 22.1% / 42.1% |
| Howard | 350 | 309 | 88.3% | 662 | 971 | 41.8% / 28.2% / 30.0% |
| Worth | 291 | 260 | 89.3% | 353 | 613 | 44.7% / 15.2% / 40.1% |
Nonpartisan voter information. GOTV Polling does not endorse any candidate.