GOTV@GOTVCA-45: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 29% · swing 54% · base R 17%
Oct 17, 2026View on X
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Polls of real voters, mapped down to the precinct.
Surveys of registered voters, matched to the voter file. Every poll we publish opens to a full analysis page: the map, every question, crosstabs and the method.
Matched to the voter fileCrosstabs on every questionGroups under 30 held back
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The Iowa Poll
Sponsored by Results PAC · Release November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT · n 994U.S. SenateWeighted
RAshley Hinson53.5%
DJosh Turek44.5%
GovernorZach Lahn 52.0%Rob Sand 46.2%
Hinson AheadTurek AheadBy congressional district
Results update as responses come in.
Poll Results
All Poll ResultsEvery poll, every number explorable.
2026 Races Map
Explore the RacesEvery race on the ballot, down to the precinct.
2026 Races Map
Under 25%25% to 30%30% to 35%35% to 40%40% to 45%45% to 50%50% or moreNot yet polledNo race this year
Shading shows the leading candidate's share in GOTV Polling results; grey means not yet polled.
U.S. House: 435 districts
New congressional district lines are in use for 2026 in Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Utah. The Census 119th Congress boundary file does not include the new lines, so those states are shown as a state outline only; use the state list below to open each district.
U.S. Senate: 35 races
Florida and Ohio hold special elections for the remainder of a term. Dark states have no Senate race this year.
Governor: 36 races
Dark states have no governor race this year.
What GOTV Polling Does
Fast polls of real voters, broken down every way that matters.
One response per phone, matched to the voter file, published with the method on every page.
Three Ways to Field
Text-to-web surveys, text reply polls and automated phone (IVR) surveys of registered voters. One response per phone, matched to the voter file.
Mapped to the Precinct
Results by county, district and precinct, with any group under 30 responses held back.
Crosstabs on Every Question
Party, age, sex, vote history and geography on every question, explorable on the page and ready to copy.
Same-Day Fielding
Questions in the morning, responses coming in the same day when scope allows.
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From X
Follow @GOTVOur race analysis, from X.
Precinct maps and analysis from our @GOTV feed. Projections are model estimates, not poll results.
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PA-07: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 23% · swing 39% · base R 37%
Oct 16, 2026View on X
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MI-07: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 33% · swing 15% · base R 52%
Oct 17, 2026View on X
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NJ-07: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 27% · swing 32% · base R 41%
Oct 17, 2026View on X
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IA-03: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 32% · swing 31% · base R 36%
Oct 17, 2026View on X
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NV-03: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 13% · swing 70% · base R 17%
Oct 17, 2026View on X
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TX-15: Target Precincts, Mapped
Mapped: 15 target precincts hold a Target Universe of 15,050 and 14,601 projected 2026 votes.
Oct 10, 2026View on X
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AZ-06: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 31% · swing 39% · base R 30%
Oct 16, 2026View on X
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VA-02: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 28% · swing 36% · base R 36%
Oct 17, 2026View on X
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NE-02: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 37% · swing 34% · base R 25%
Oct 17, 2026View on X
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CO-08: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 33% · swing 31% · base R 35%
Oct 17, 2026View on X
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CA-45: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 29% · swing 54% · base R 17%Oct 17, 2026View on X
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IA-03: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 32% · swing 31% · base R 36%Oct 17, 2026View on X
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VA-02: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 28% · swing 36% · base R 36%Oct 17, 2026View on X
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PA-07: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 23% · swing 39% · base R 37%Oct 16, 2026View on X
- GOTV@GOTV
NV-03: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 13% · swing 70% · base R 17%Oct 17, 2026View on X
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NE-02: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 37% · swing 34% · base R 25%Oct 17, 2026View on X
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MI-07: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 33% · swing 15% · base R 52%Oct 17, 2026View on X
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TX-15: Target Precincts, Mapped
Mapped: 15 target precincts hold a Target Universe of 15,050 and 14,601 projected 2026 votes.Oct 10, 2026View on X
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CO-08: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 33% · swing 31% · base R 35%Oct 17, 2026View on X
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NJ-07: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 27% · swing 32% · base R 41%Oct 17, 2026View on X
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AZ-06: Decider Precincts
GOTV AI projection, 2026 vote: base D 31% · swing 39% · base R 30%Oct 16, 2026View on X
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