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Iowa Governor (IA-GOV) - Midterms - GOTV Poll

993 respondents for IA-GOV (statewide) · MOE ±3.1 pts · Fielding since October 30, 2026 · Text-to-web · Weighted to 2024 recalled vote · Updated Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM PT · Release as of November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT · Pollster: GOTV Polling · General election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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Interactive map: Iowa by county

Pick a layer, then click or tap a county to open its precinct map, with the county summary (past results, demographics and early vote) on the right.

R+30 or moreR+15-30R+5-15R+0-5D+0-5D+5-15D+15-30D+30 or moreno dataEarly ballots cast by registered party, D minus R, as of October 30, 2026. Party is registration, not vote.

R+30 or moreR+15-30R+5-15R+0-5D+0-5D+5-15D+15-30D+30 or moreno dataCertified result margin, D minus R, by county.

R+30 or moreR+15-30R+5-15R+0-5D+0-5D+5-15D+15-30D+30 or moreno dataCertified result margin, D minus R, by county.

R+30 or moreR+15-30R+5-15R+0-5D+0-5D+5-15D+15-30D+30 or moreno dataCertified result margin, D minus R, by county.

<5%5-15%15-30%30-50%50-70%70%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.

<$40k$40-60k$60-80k$80-100k$100-140k$140k+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.

<1%1-2%2-4%4-8%8-15%15%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.

<0.5%0.5-1%1-2%2-4%4-8%8%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.

<15%15-20%20-25%25-35%35-45%45%+Adults 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher. Census ACS 2020-2024.

<15%15-18%18-21%21-24%24-27%27%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.

<1%1-2%2-4%4-8%8-15%15%+Adults who speak Spanish at home. Census ACS 2020-2024.

<7%7-9%9-11%11-13%13-16%16%+Census ACS 2020-2024, by county.

<1k1k-2.5k2.5k-5k5k-10k10k-50k50k+Early ballots cast (mail returned plus in person), unofficial.

<35%35-45%45-55%55-60%60-65%65%+Share of early ballots cast by voters 65 and over, unofficial.

<8%8-12%12-16%16-20%20-25%25%+Share of early ballots cast by voters 18 to 40, unofficial.

AdairAdamsAllamakeeAppanooseAudubonBentonBlack HawkBooneBremerBuchananBuena VistaButlerCalhounCarrollCassCedarCerro GordoCherokeeChickasawClarkeClayClaytonClintonCrawfordDallasDavisDecaturDelawareDes MoinesDickinsonDubuqueEmmetFayetteFloydFranklinFremontGreeneGrundyGuthrieHamiltonHancockHardinHarrisonHenryHowardHumboldtIdaIowaJacksonJasperJeffersonJohnsonJonesKeokukKossuthLeeLinnLouisaLucasLyonMadisonMahaskaMarionMarshallMillsMitchellMononaMonroeMontgomeryMuscatineO'BrienOsceolaPagePalo AltoPlymouthPocahontasPolkPottawattamiePoweshiekRinggoldSacScottShelbySiouxStoryTamaTaylorUnionVan BurenWapelloWarrenWashingtonWayneWebsterWinnebagoWinneshiekWoodburyWorthWright

GOTV poll results are published as statewide and district totals only; the map shows past results, early vote and demographics.

Statewide races are mapped by county. Precinct maps are on each U.S. House district poll page. Past results: certified county results from the Iowa Secretary of State. Early vote: civicAPI and Call the Map, republishing Iowa Secretary of State counts, as of October 30, 2026.

Top Line Poll Results LiveIA-GOV Governor: Zach Lahn 52.0%, Rob Sand 46.2% (Lahn +5.8), n = 993993 respondents · MOE ±3.1 pts · weightedExpand to see more

Governor (IA-GOV) #IAGOV

RZach Lahn52.0%
DRob Sand46.2%

n = 993, weighted. Undecided 1.8%

Methodology LiveIA-GOV: 993 respondents · MOE ±3.1 ptsFielding since October 30, 2026 · data as of Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM PTExpand to see more
  • One poll covers all six races; this methodology is the same on every race page. Respondents and margin of error by race: IA-SEN (#IASEN): 994 respondents, MOE ±3.1 pts; IA-GOV (#IAGOV): 993 respondents, MOE ±3.1 pts; IA-01 (#IA01): 245 respondents, MOE ±6.3 pts; IA-02 (#IA02): 215 respondents, MOE ±6.7 pts; IA-03 (#IA03): 350 respondents, MOE ±5.2 pts; IA-04 (#IA04): 180 respondents, MOE ±7.3 pts.
  • Margin of error: plus or minus 3.1 points for the full sample (95% confidence); 3.3 with the design effect from weighting.
  • Mode: Text-to-web. Registered Iowa voters, matched to the voter file. Collection has closed.
  • Weighting: Weighted to the recalled 2024 presidential vote targets shown on this page (Trump, Harris, other). Region targets are not applied yet because respondents are placed by county only. Unweighted results and respondent counts are shown alongside.
  • Official release as of November 4, 2026, 9:12 AM PT.
  • Responses are still coming in. Results are published live on the GOTVPolling.com and ResultsPAC.com poll pages, and updated results, crosstabs, methodology and an expanded universe may be published from time to time.

Download methodology (as of now)

Crosstabs LiveParty registration: Democratic Sand 97%; Republican Lahn 82%Age: 65+ Sand 63%; 50-64 Sand 58%; 35-49 Sand 69%Expand to see more

Governor (IA-GOV) vote, unweighted, statewide. Groups under 30 respondents are not shown.

Party registrationnRob SandZach LahnUndecided
Democratic56597.0%2.3%0.7%
Republican42015.2%81.7%3.1%
Non-Partisann too small
AgenRob SandZach LahnUndecided
65+75062.8%35.7%1.5%
50-6415157.6%40.4%2.0%
35-498368.7%27.7%3.6%
18-34n too small
SexnRob SandZach LahnUndecided
Men52854.4%43.9%1.7%
Women46571.6%26.7%1.7%

Download all crosstabs (CSV, as of now)

Graphics downloads for IA-GOV #IAGOV

Poll results · General election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Poll results

Respondents (completed): 994. Last updated: Nov 3, 6:59 PM PT. Reload the page for the latest numbers while responses come in.

Toplines are weighted; unweighted shares and respondent counts are shown with each question. Margin of error for the full sample: plus or minus 3.1 points (unweighted, 95% confidence). Crosstab groups with fewer than 30 respondents are not shown.

Governor vote

Weighted shares among completed respondents who answered. n = 993.

  • Zach Lahn52.0%
  • Rob Sand46.2%
  • Undecided1.8%

Unweighted: Rob Sand 62.4%, Zach Lahn 35.9%, Undecided 1.7%.

Crosstabs (unweighted)
Party registrationnRob SandZach LahnUndecided
Democratic56597.0%2.3%0.7%
Republican42015.2%81.7%3.1%
Non-Partisann too small
AgenRob SandZach LahnUndecided
65+75062.8%35.7%1.5%
50-6415157.6%40.4%2.0%
35-498368.7%27.7%3.6%
18-34n too small
SexnRob SandZach LahnUndecided
Men52854.4%43.9%1.7%
Women46571.6%26.7%1.7%
EthnicitynRob SandZach LahnUndecided
European86262.1%36.4%1.5%
Not on file10362.1%35.0%2.9%
Hispanic and Portuguesen too small
Likely African-Americann too small
East and South Asiann too small
Othern too small

Weighting: Weighted to the recalled 2024 presidential vote targets shown on this page (Trump, Harris, other). Region targets are not applied yet because respondents are placed by county only. Unweighted results and respondent counts are shown alongside.

Candidate details: race page.

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Voting history of respondents: Governor (#IAGOV)

Aggregate results only. Groups under 30 respondents are held back. All respondents are high-turnout voters who voted in each of the last four general elections.

Sample: 929 completed respondents answered the Governor question (published topline n). Margin of error plus or minus 3.4 points at 95% confidence (including the weighting design effect). Weighted to recalled 2024 presidential vote, the same method as the published toplines. Voting history comes from the voter file record matched to each respondent (930 of 930 matched). All numbers are polling aggregates. Any group with fewer than 30 respondents is held back. Subgroup margins of error are larger than the topline.

Published topline: Rob Sand 46.1%, Zach Lahn 52.0%, Undecided 1.9%.

Who answered: voting history profile

  • Every respondent voted in the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 general elections (all of the last four). These are high-turnout voters, not all registered voters, so these results describe the most reliable part of the electorate.
  • New vs habitual: 35 respondents did not vote in the 2016 general; everyone else is a long-run habitual voter. A new-voter comparison is not possible from this sample.

Primary participation, 2018 to 2026 (of 5):

GroupRespondentsShare
All 5 primaries56160%
4 of 5 primaries23425%
2 or 3 of 5 primaries13515%

2024 general, how they voted:

GroupRespondentsShare
Early, 2+ weeks out28230%
Early, final 2 weeks39142%
Election Day (no early record)25728%

Voter-file vote frequency score:

GroupRespondentsShare
Vote frequency 8 (highest)56160%
Vote frequency 723425%
Vote frequency 5 to 613515%

Support by voting history

Primary history:

GroupnRob SandZach LahnUndecided
All 5 primaries56156.4%42.0%1.5%
4 of 5 primaries23435.6%62.7%1.8%
2 or 3 of 5 primaries13429.1%67.7%3.2%

2024 voting method:

GroupnRob SandZach LahnUndecided
Early, 2+ weeks out28253.8%45.1%1.1%
Early, final 2 weeks39047.2%50.8%2.1%
Election Day (no early record)25737.1%60.5%2.4%

Vote frequency score:

GroupnRob SandZach LahnUndecided
Vote frequency 8 (highest)56156.4%42.0%1.5%
Vote frequency 723435.6%62.7%1.8%
Vote frequency 5 to 613429.1%67.7%3.2%

Party registration by primary history:

GroupnRob SandZach LahnUndecided
Republican, all 5 primaries1708.2%90.3%1.5%
Republican, fewer than 5 primaries22310.4%86.4%3.2%
Democratic, all 5 primaries38595.2%3.2%1.6%
Democratic, fewer than 5 primaries14396.2%3.8%0.0%
Other / no party, all 5 primariesunder 30held backheld backheld back
Other / no party, fewer than 5 primariesunder 30held backheld backheld back

What it means

  • Margin among voters in all 5 primaries: Sand +14.4; among those in 2 or 3 of 5: Lahn +38.6.
  • Margin among voters who voted early 2+ weeks out in 2024: Sand +8.8; among Election Day voters: Lahn +23.3.
  • Within each party support barely moves (Republicans 90% and 86% Lahn, Democrats 95% and 96% Sand), so the gap is mostly party mix.
  • Because every respondent is a high-turnout voter, read differences between voting-history groups as differences within the most reliable part of the electorate, not as a turnout model.
  • Party and primary history overlap strongly; differences by history group are largely party composition.

Caveats

  • Held back (under 30): Other / no party, all 5 primaries, Other / no party, fewer than 5 primaries.
  • Early-vote timing is from the voter file's 2024 record, not a 2026 early-vote measure.
Governor (#IAGOV): voting history of poll respondents: Topline
Topline · square
Governor (#IAGOV): voting history of poll respondents: By primary history
By primary history · square
Governor (#IAGOV): voting history of poll respondents: By 2024 vote timing
By 2024 vote timing · square
Governor (#IAGOV): voting history of poll respondents: Party by primary history
Party by primary history · square
Download the voting history report (PDF)